Development and evaluation of a storm surge warning system in Taiwan     

Mei-Ying Lin  Wen-Yih Sun  Ming-Da Chiou  Chih-Ying Chen  Hao-Yuan Cheng  Cheng-Hsin Chen 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(8):1025-1049

An operational storm surge forecasting system aimed at providing warning information for storm surges has been developed and evaluated using four typhoon events. The warning system triggered by typhoon forecasts from Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment (TAPEX) has been executed with two storm surge forecasting scenarios with and without tides. Three numerical experiments applying different meteorological inputs have been designed to assess the impact of typhoon forcing on storm surges. One uses synthetic wind fields, and the others use realistic wind fields with and without adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation. Local observations from Central Weather Bureau (CWB) weather stations and tide gauge stations are used to evaluate the wind fields and storm surges from our numerical experiments. The comparison results show that the accuracy of the storm surge forecast is dominated by the track, the intensity, and the driving flow of a typhoon. When the structure of a typhoon is disturbed by Taiwan’s topography, using meteorological inputs from real wind fields can result in a better typhoon simulation than using inputs from synthetic wind fields. The driving flow also determines the impact of topography on typhoon movement. For quickly moving typhoons, storm forcing from TAPEX is reliable when a typhoon is strong enough to be relatively unaffected by environmental flows; otherwise, storm forcing from a sophisticated typhoon initialization scheme that better simulates the typhoon and environmental flows results in a more accurate prediction of storm surges. Therefore, when a typhoon moves slowly and interacts more with the topography and environmental flows, incorporating realistic wind fields with adjustments to the initial wind fields for the background circulation in the warning system will obtain better predictions for a typhoon and its resultant storm surges.  相似文献   

Wave boundary layers in rotating stratified fluid and near-inertial oscillations     

Gregory M. Reznik 《Ocean Dynamics》2018,68(8):987-1000

Theory of wave boundary layers (WBLs) developed by Reznik (J Mar Res 71: 253–288, 2013, J Fluid Mech 747: 605–634, 2014, J Fluid Mech 833: 512–537, 2017) is extended to a rotating stratified fluid. In this case, the WBLs arise in the field of near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) driven by a tangential wind stress of finite duration. Near-surface Ekman layer is specified in the most general form; tangential stresses are zero at the lower boundary of Ekman layer and viscosity is neglected below the boundary. After the wind ceases, the Ekman pumping at the boundary becomes a linear superposition of inertial oscillations with coefficients dependent on the horizontal coordinates. The solution under the Ekman layer is obtained in the form of expansions in the vertical wave modes. We separate from the solution a part representing NIO and demonstrate development of a WBL near the Ekman layer boundary. With increasing time t, the WBL width decays inversely proportional to \( \sqrt{t} \) and gradients of fields in the WBL grow proportionally to \( \sqrt{t} \); the most part of NIO is concentrated in the WBL. Structure of the WBL depends strongly on its horizontal scale L determined by scale of the wind stress. The shorter the NIO is, the thinner and sharper the WBL is; the short-wave NIO with L smaller than the baroclinic Rossby scale L_R does not penetrate deep into the ocean. On the contrary, for L?≥?L_R, the WBL has a smoother vertical structure; a significant long-wave NIO signal is able to reach the oceanic bottom. An asymptotic theory of the WBL in rotating stratified fluid is suggested.  相似文献   

Deterministic and fuzzy-based methods to evaluate community resilience     

Omar Kammouh  Ali Zamani Noori  Veronica Taurino  Stephen A. Mahin  Gian Paolo Cimellaro 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2018,17(2):261-275

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Brittleness characteristics of tight oil siltstones     

Wen-Hui Tan  Jing Ba  Meng-Qiu Guo  Hui Li  Lin Zhang  Ting Yu  Hao Chen 《应用地球物理》2018,15(2):175-187

Rock brittleness directly affects reservoir fracturing and its evaluation is essential for establishing fracturing conditions prior to reservoir reforming. Dynamic and static brittleness data were collected from siltstones of the Qingshankou Formation in Songliao Basin. The brittle–plastic transition was investigated based on the stress–strain relation. The results suggest that the brittleness indices calculated by static elastic parameters are negatively correlated with the stress drop coefficient and the brittleness index B₂, defined as the average of the normalized Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, is strongly correlated with the stress drop. The brittleness index B₂, Young’s modulus, and Poisson’s ratio correlate with the brittle minerals content; that is, quartz, carbonates, and pyrite. We also investigated the correlation between pore fluid and porosity and dynamic brittle characteristic based on index B₂. Pore fluid increases the plasticity of rock and reduces brittleness; moreover, with increasing porosity, rock brittleness decreases. The gas-saturated siltstone brittleness index is higher than that in oil- or water-saturated siltstone; the difference in the brittleness indices of oil- and water-saturated siltstone is very small. By comparing the rock mechanics and ultrasonic experiments, we find that the brittleness index obtained from the rock mechanics experiments is smaller than that obtained from the ultrasonic experiments; nevertheless, both decrease with increasing porosity as well as their differences. Ultrasonic waves propagate through the rock specimens without affecting them, whereas rock mechanics experiments are destructive and induce microcracking and porosity increases; consequently, the brittleness of low-porosity rocks is affected by the formation of internal microcrack systems.  相似文献   

Late Holocene environmental changes reconstructed from stable isotope and geochemical records from a cushion‐plant peatland in the Chilean Central Andes (27°S)     

S. T. Kock  K. Schittek  B. Mchtle  H. Wissel  A. Maldonado  A. Lücke 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(2):153-164

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Environmental changes in the north‐east Sunda region over the last 40 000 years     

Chuanxiu Luo  Simon Haberle  Zhuo Zheng  Rong Xiang  Chixin Chen  Gang Lin  Kumar Sazal 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(3):245-257

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Bathymetry,substrate and fishing areas of Southeast Atlantic high-seas seamounts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

OA Bergstad  ÅS Høines  R Sarralde  G Campanis  M Gil  F Ramil 《African Journal of Marine Science》2019,41(1):11-28

Most of the Southeast Atlantic Ocean is abyssal, and global bathymetries suggest that only ～3.2% of the areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ; also known as the high seas, as defined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea [UNCLOS]) are shallower than 2 500 m. This study mapped bathymetry and characterised substrates in selected seamount summit areas, including several that have been or may become fishing areas. The southernmost location, the Schmitt-Ott Seamount, has exposed volcanic bedrock with surrounding flats covered by thin biogenic sediments and/or coral rubble that appears ancient. At Wüst, Vema, Valdivia and Ewing seamounts the basaltic base appears to be overlain by coral caps and other coral substrates (sheets, rubble). Adjacent summit plains have biogenic sediments of varying thickness. Vema has a flat, roughly circular summit, <100 m deep, with the shallowest point being a 22-m-deep summit knoll; the upper slopes have ancient coral framework, but the summit has a mixture of coralline and volcanic rock and coarse sediments, including extensive areas with coralline algae and kelp forests. Valdivia Bank is a 230-m-deep, flat, rocky area (～11 × 5 km), protruding steeply from the extensive multi-summit Valdivia subarea of the Walvis Ridge. The distribution of past fisheries in the Convention Area of the South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO) was considered in relation to the new information on bathymetry and substrate.  相似文献   

The constancy of galactic cosmic rays as recorded by cosmogenic nuclides in iron meteorites     

Thomas Smith  David L. Cook  Silke Merchel  Stefan Pavetich  Georg Rugel  Andreas Scharf  Ingo Leya 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(12):2951-2976

We measured the He, Ne, and Ar isotopic concentrations and the ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, and ⁴¹Ca concentrations in 56 iron meteorites of groups IIIAB, IIAB, IVA, IC, IIA, IIB, and one ungrouped. From ⁴¹Ca and ³⁶Cl data, we calculated terrestrial ages indistinguishable from zero for six samples, indicating recent falls, up to 562 ± 86 ka. Three of the studied meteorites are falls. The data for the other 47 irons confirm that terrestrial ages for iron meteorites can be as long as a few hundred thousand years even in relatively humid conditions. The ³⁶Cl‐³⁶Ar cosmic ray exposure (CRE) ages range from 4.3 ± 0.4 Ma to 652 ± 99 Ma. By including literature data, we established a consistent and reliable CRE age database for 67 iron meteorites. The high quality of the CRE ages enables us to study structures in the CRE age histogram more reliably. At first sight, the CRE age histogram shows peaks at about 400 and 630 Ma. After correction for pairing, the updated CRE age histogram comprises 41 individual samples and shows no indications of temporal periodicity, especially not if one considers each iron meteorite group separately. Our study contradicts the hypothesis of periodic GCR intensity variations (Shaviv 2002, 2003), confirming other studies indicating that there are no periodic structures in the CRE age histogram (e.g., Rahmstorf et al. 2004; Jahnke 2005). The data contradict the hypothesis that periodic GCR intensity variations might have triggered periodic Earth climate changes. The ³⁶Cl‐³⁶Ar CRE ages are on average 40% lower than the ⁴¹K‐K CRE ages (e.g., Voshage 1967). This offset can either be due to an offset in the ⁴¹K‐K dating system or due to a significantly lower GCR intensity in the time interval 195–656 Ma compared to the recent past. A 40% lower GCR intensity, however, would have increased the Earth temperature by up to 2 °C, which seems unrealistic and leaves an ill‐defined ⁴¹K‐K CRE age system the most likely explanation. Finally, we present new ²⁶Al/²¹Ne and ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne production rate ratios of 0.32 ± 0.01 and 0.44 ± 0.03, respectively.  相似文献   

Late Cambrian microbial build-ups,Llano Area,Central Texas: A three-phase morphological evolution     

Pankaj Khanna  Heath H. Hopson  André W. Droxler  Dylan A. Droxler  Daniel Lehrmann  Brian Kubik  Jacob Proctor  Pulkit Singh  Paul M. Harris 《Sedimentology》2020,67(2):1135-1160

Although Late Cambrian microbial build-ups were recognized in the Point Peak Member of the Wilberns Formation in Central Texas (USA) nearly 70 years ago, only a few studies focused specifically on the build-ups themselves. This study focuses on the interpretation of the regional (15 measured sections described in literature representing an area of 8000 km²) and local (field and drone photogrammetry studies in a 25 km² area from within south Mason County) microbial build-up occurrence, describes their growth phases and details their interactions with the surrounding inter-build-up sediments. The study establishes the occurrence of microbial build-ups in the lower and upper Point Peak members (the Point Peak Member is informally broken up into the lower Point Peak and the upper Point Peak members separated by Plectotrophia zone). The lower Point Peak Member consists of three <1 m thick microbial bioherms and biostrome units, in addition to heterolithic and skeletal/ooid grainstone and packstone beds. One, up to 14 m thick, microbial unit associated with inter-build-up skeletal and ooid grainstone and packstone beds, intercalated with mixed siliciclastic–carbonate silt beds, characterizes the upper Point Peak member. The microbial unit in the upper Point Peak member displays a three-phase growth evolution, from an initial colonization phase on flat based, rip-up clast lenses, to a second aggradation and lateral expansion phase, into a third well-defined capping phase. The ultimate demise of the microbial build-ups is interpreted to have been triggered by an increase of water turbidity caused by a sudden influx of fine siliciclastics. The lower Point Peak member represents inner ramp shallow subtidal and intertidal facies and the upper Point Peak member corresponds to mid-outer ramp subtidal facies. Understanding the morphological architecture and depositional context of these features is of importance for identifying signatures of early life on Earth.  相似文献   

A quantitative risk analysis model for cascade reservoirs overtopping: principle and application     

Zhou  Xingbo  Chen  Zuyu  Zhou  Jianping  Guo  Xinlei  Du  Xiaohu  Zhang  Qiang 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):249-277

Natural Hazards - Quantitative and effective flood control operation of cascade reservoirs under emergency conditions can guarantee the safety of dams, reduce the social loss caused by flood...  相似文献